Yesterday, Zheng cotton main 1509 contract shocks fell, the lowest drop in the day to 13,140 yuan / ton, as of the closing price, 85 yuan / ton lower than the previous trading day settlement price, the increase in the position of more than 10,000 hands to 21,145 hands. Analysts said that despite the gradual recovery of cotton enterprises'purchasing and the expected reduction of planting area, cotton market turnover is still light, downstream orders are not good, textile enterprises are not intent to replenish their warehouses, and cotton stocks are high, and the weak post-market volatility of cotton prices is a big probability event.
In foreign markets, the latest data released by the Indian Cotton Federation (ICF) show that the market volume of seed cotton in India is about 57.03 million tons, and the Indian Cotton Company (CCI) has acquired 1.36 million tons. The ICF said India's total cotton production would be lower than the 6.8 million tons forecast by the Indian Cotton Advisory Board (CAB).
In addition, the latest ginning report released on March 25 by the US Department of Agriculture shows that cotton production in the United States is expected to reach 3549,000 tons this year, 47,000 tons higher than that predicted by USDA in January, an increase of 26.65% over the previous year, of which upland cotton production increased by 27.6%. Today, the most active ICE May cotton delivery fell 1.2% to 63.16 cents per pound.
Domestically, although the decline in cotton planting area is a foregone conclusion, the warm wind seems to be better than nothing in the weak cotton market.
According to the cotton planting intention report issued by relevant departments in 2015, the domestic cotton planting intention showed a strong downward trend, with the estimated area reduced to 56.21 million-49.744 million mu. At present, spring sowing of cotton in Xinjiang has also started. According to some local cotton farmers, many township governments have guided cotton farmers to reduce the planting area of fine-lint cotton and increase the planting area of long-lint cotton or spring wheat.
In March, the Xinjiang Autonomous Region issued a document to guide cotton farmers to reduce cotton planting area, increase long-staple cotton and fine-staple cotton planting area, and actively guide cotton farmers to develop healthily. The planned planting area of the Autonomous Region in 2015/2016 decreased by 46.65 million mu, or 15.72%, compared with 29.66.791 million mu last year.
The cotton planting intention of the new year has increased, but the weak or even falling reaction of the round rebound can be seen in the weak cotton market.
Xu Aixia, a cotton researcher at Everbright Futures, said that with the end of the Spring Festival, Xinjiang's cotton outbound speed began to accelerate. As of March 26, Zheng Merchants Institute had no restrictions on registered warehouse receipts for machine-picked cotton. As of March 26, Zheng Merchants Institute had 1077 warehouse receipts, 541 valid forecasts, and the number of warehouse receipts was the second highest in nearly five years, next to the level in 2011/2012. From the composition of warehouse receip Cotton.
"Before the end of March, most cotton enterprises in Xinjiang had to repay the loans of the Agricultural Development Bank. There was a phenomenon of price reduction and selling, and the quotations were uneven. Although the quotations in Hebei and other places were stable, the downstream weak purchasing was not active, and the price differentiation in Henan and other places was serious." Xu Aixia said that, according to the current market situation, although there is news that cotton planting area will be reduced in the near future, the domestic cotton delivery and processing are almost at the end, coupled with the release of transport capacity from Xinjiang, Xinjiang cotton export volume increased, lint market volume increased significantly, supply pressure increased sharply, and downstream demand continued to weaken, coupled with the increase in port import yarn stocks, etc., all of these have formed cotton prices in the near future. Pressure.